SAFFORD MAR 2, 2014 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ************* | **** 255 **** | ************* | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 1 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - FEB 22 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 16 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : FEB 23 - MAR 1 This Week : MAR 2 - MAR 8 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 68 35 25 29 ---- Normal 71 37 25 35 Recorded 75 42 21 50 0.10 2013 73 39 10 48 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 62.8 MAR 1 ; Min = 55.2 FEB 23 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- The cool & damp weekend weather will be replaced with warm & dry conditions by mid-week. This warming trend may last for an extended period. The current 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts exhibit a strong bias for above normal temperatures (through mid-March). Growers are encouraged to monitor soil temperatures prior to planting. Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) at planting depth should be 60F or higher for acceptable germination. Minimum soil temperatures typically reach this 60F level with daytime highs of 80F or higher and nighttime lows above 47F. Growers can monitor current weather conditions at local AZMET weather stations by logging on to the AZMET website (http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet) and clicking the "Current Conditions" label. Click on station labels at top of page to view conditions over the most recent 24 hours. SAFFORD MAR 9, 2014 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | *************** | ****** 294 **** | *************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 8 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 1 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 15 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 2 - MAR 8 This Week : MAR 9 - MAR 15 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 71 37 25 35 ---- Normal 74 38 25 45 Recorded 72 40 36 39 0.09 2013 81 37 27 62 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 57.7 MAR 8 ; Min = 54 MAR 5 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Warmer temperatures will return to AZ early this week. A dry storm system will pass north of AZ mid-week, bringing a return to windy conditions Tuesday thru Thursday. Cooler temperatures are expected in eastern AZ in the wake of this storm. Present forecasts indicate the cooler conditions will not reach western production areas. Temperatures should average ~3F above normal for the week. Soil temperatures at planting depth at 8am should be 60F for acceptable germin- ation. Soil temperatures typically reach this 60F level with daytime highs of 80F or higher & nighttime lows above 47F. Growers can monitor current weather conditions at AZMET stations. Log on to the website (http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet) and click the "Current Conditions" label. Click on station labels at top of page to view conditions over the most recent 24 hours. SAFFORD MAR 16, 2014 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ***************** | ****** 338 ****** | ***************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 15 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 8 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 13 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 9 - MAR 15 This Week : MAR 16 - MAR 22 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 74 38 25 45 ---- Normal 75 39 27 51 Recorded 73 39 25 42 0.00 2013 79 43 19 66 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 59 MAR 14 ; Min = 55.2 MAR 10 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will dominate the weather this week, resulting in generally clear skies, warm temperatures & low humidity. Temperatures are expected to average 4-7 degrees above normal. Monitor soil temperatures prior to planting. Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) at planting depth should be 60F or higher for accept- able germination. Minimum soil temperatures typically reach this 60F level with daytime highs of 80F or higher and nighttime lows above 47F. Weather data from local AZMET stations are available by logging on to the AZMET website (http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet) & clicking the "Current Conditions" label. Click on station labels to view conditions over the most recent 24 hours. SAFFORD MAR 23, 2014 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ******************** | ******** 393 ******* | ******************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 22 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 15 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 13 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 16 - MAR 22 This Week : MAR 23 - MAR 29 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 75 39 27 51 ---- Normal 75 40 27 51 Recorded 78 38 14 55 0.00 2013 81 41 20 67 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 60.1 MAR 21 ; Min = 55.9 MAR 17 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- The week will begin with mostly sunny & warm conditions. However, a trough of low pressure will pass through AZ Wednesday, producing higher winds, some clouds & cooler conditions. Temperatures Thursday & Friday will approach normal levels (7-10 degrees cooler than early in the week). Warmer weather will return for the weekend as high pressure redevelops over the region. Heat unit (HU) accumulation continues to run well above normal & soil tempera- tures are much warmer than is typical for late March. Given the cool late-week forecast growers should monitor soil temperatures if planting late in the week. Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) at planting depth should be 60F or higher for acceptable germination. Growers are encouraged to plant full season varieties before HU accumulation exceeds 700 (see graph above). SAFFORD MAR 30, 2014 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | *********************** | ********** 456 ******** | *********************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 29 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 22 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 13 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 23 - MAR 29 This Week : MAR 30 - APR 5 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 75 40 27 51 ---- Normal 78 42 27 60 Recorded 79 41 25 62 0.00 2013 82 45 21 75 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 63.5 MAR 27 ; Min = 60.1 MAR 23 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A storm system is projected to impact AZ weather this week. Warm temperatures Monday will be followed by windy & cooler conditions mid-week. There is a slight chance for showers Wednesday. A return to normal temperatures is expected late in the week. Temperatures for the week should average ~2F below normal. --Closely monitor soil temperatures & the approaching storm system before plant- ing this week. Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) should exceed 60F prior to planting. Soils approach 60F at 8am when minimum air temperatures (at sunrise) remain above 47F. Growers are encouraged to complete their plantings of full season varieties before HU accumulation exceeds 700 (see graph). --Plant population should range from 25,000-50,000 plants/a. To assess, count the number of plants in 1/1000a & multiply by 1000. Row length = to 1/1000a: 40"row = 13'1", 38"row = 13'9", 36"row = 14'6", 30"row = 17'5". SAFFORD APR 6, 2014 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ************************* | ********** 506 ********** | ************************* | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 5 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 29 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 11 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 30 - APR 5 This Week : APR 6 - APR 12 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 78 42 27 60 ---- Normal 79 43 26 66 Recorded 76 40 19 50 0.00 2013 77 41 26 58 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 62.2 MAR 30 ; Min = 58.8 APR 4 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Strong high pressure will develop over AZ Monday. Expect clear skies & much warmer temperatures through Wednesday. A trough of low pressure is expected to impact the region late in the week, resulting in another bout of windy & cooler weather. Temperatures are expected to cool to near-normal levels by the weekend. No precipitation is expected with the passage of this trough. --Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) should exceed 60F prior to planting. Soils approach 60F at 8am when minimum air temperatures (at sunrise) remain above 47F. --Plant population should range from 25,000-50,000 plants/a. To assess, count the number of plants in 1/1000a & multiply by 1000. Row length = to 1/1000a: 40"row = 13'1", 38"row = 13'9", 36"row = 14'6", 30"row = 17'5". --AZMET will release a new Current Conditions data display this week. Variables added include dew point, maximum & minimum temperature & maximum wind speed since midnight & precipitation. See website at: ag.arizona.edu/azmet. SAFFORD APR 13, 2014 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ****************************** | ************* 593 ************ | ****************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 12 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 5 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 11 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 6 - APR 12 This Week : APR 13 - APR 19 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 79 43 26 66 ---- Normal 82 45 26 76 Recorded 85 45 21 87 0.00 2013 79 45 26 69 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 69.1 APR 12 ; Min = 60.1 APR 6 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Expect mostly sunny weather with a gradual warming trend through mid-week. Temp- eratures Wednesday should run ~5 degrees above normal. A series of storm systems are expected to impact AZ late in the week. The first system will remain north of AZ but will produce windy & slightly cooler temperatures. The second storm system will move across AZ & bring slightly cooler temperatures (near normal) & a slight chance for precipitation Friday & Saturday. --Growers in central AZ should complete their plantings of full season varieties as soon as possible (see graph above). --Plant population should range from 25,000-50,000 plants/a. To assess, count the number of plants in 1/1000a & multiply by 1000. Row length = to 1/1000a: 40"row = 13'1", 38"row = 13'9", 36"row = 14'6", 30"row = 17'5". --The new AZMET Current Conditions data display is now available. See website at: http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet. SAFFORD APR 20, 2014 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ********************************* | ************** 669 ************** | ********************************* | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 19 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 12 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 10 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 13 - APR 19 This Week : APR 20 - APR 26 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 82 45 26 76 ---- Normal 84 46 26 86 Recorded 82 46 28 75 0.00 2013 88 46 14 100 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 68.7 APR 18 ; Min = 63.7 APR 16 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will develop over AZ early this week resulting in very warm & dry conditions. A storm system will pass north of AZ Wednesday, resulting in windy conditions & a return to near normal temperatures. A second storm system is for- cast to impact AZ this weekend. Current forecasts indicate this weekend system will be dry, but may produce a brief spell of below normal temperatures. --Western AZ growers: the first important developmental milestone for cotton is pinhead square when cotton transitions from vegetative to reproductive develop- ment. This typically occurs at ~700 HU after planting (see graph). --The new AZMET Current Conditions data display is now available. See website at: http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet. SAFFORD APR 27, 2014 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ************************************** | ***************** 763 **************** | ************************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 26 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 19 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 10 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 20 - APR 26 This Week : APR 27 - MAY 3 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 84 46 26 86 ---- Normal 86 48 25 92 Recorded 86 48 28 94 0.00 2013 90 52 17 108 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 70.5 APR 23 ; Min = 64 APR 20 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will replace the weekend storm system, resulting in clear skies & a gradual warming trend. A period of moderate to strong winds is expected Tuesday & Wednesday as high pressure settles into the region. Much warmer temperatures & very dry conditions are expected late in the week. High temperatures in western production areas could approach 100F by the weekend. --The new AZMET Current Conditions data display is now available. Data are now be- ing updated every 15 minutes. See website at:http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet. --Western AZ growers: the first important developmental milestone for cotton is pinhead square when cotton transitions from vegetative to reproductive develop- ment. This typically occurs at ~700 HU after planting (see graph). SAFFORD MAY 4, 2014 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ****************************************** | ******************* 837 ****************** | ****************************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAY 3 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 26 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 8 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 27 - MAY 3 This Week : MAY 4 - MAY 10 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 86 48 25 92 ---- Normal 89 50 26 103 Recorded 81 46 21 75 0.00 2013 84 55 20 104 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 67.8 MAY 3 ; Min = 64 APR 28 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure that was responsible for the recent warm weather will weaken as a trough drops into the Great Basin Tuesday. This system will produce windy con- ditions Tuesday & a pronounced cooling trend mid-week. Temperatures on Wednesday will be ~10F below normal. No rainfall is expected with this system. High pres- sure will redevelop Friday, resulting in a return to above normal temperatures. --The first post-plant irrigation is typically applied when HU accumulation after planting ranges from 700-900. Earlier irrigations (lower HUs) are required in coarse textured soils; later irrigations (higher HUs) in finer textured soils. --The new AZMET Current Conditions report is now available. Data are updated every 15 minutes. See website at:http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet. SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 11, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ********* 445 -1 day | v | | | | | | | | 4/15****** 304 -1 day | | | | | | | | | 5/1 ** 121 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 10 v = Heat Units on MAY 3; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 929; Last year = 880; Normal = 824 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 93 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 4 - MAY 10 This Week : MAY 11 - MAY 17 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 89 50 26 103 ---- Normal 92 53 29 118 Recorded 87 47 22 93 0.00 2013 93 59 31 138 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 Water Use (last week): .46" .46" .46" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --The storm system that produced Sunday's windy & cooler weather will exit the region Monday. High pressure will redevelop over the region early in the week, resulting first in another bout of windy weather, followed later by a return to hot & dry conditions. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast for the mon- soon season indicates a bias for above normal temperatures & precipitation. The CPC has issued an El Nino Watch. Forecast models indicate a 65% chance of El Nino developing by summer. El Nino events often result in wetter than normal winters. --The first post-plant irrigation is typically applied when HU accumulation after planting ranges from 600-900. Earlier irrigations (lower HUs) are required in coarse textured soils; later irrigations (higher HUs) are expected in finer soils. SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 18, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 *********** 541 -2 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15******** 400 -2 days |v | | | | | | | | 5/1 **** 217 -2 days | | | | | | | | | 5/15 37 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 17 v = Heat Units on MAY 10; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1025; Last year = 1018; Normal = 942 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 95 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 11 - MAY 17 This Week : MAY 18 - MAY 24 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 92 53 29 118 ---- Normal 93 55 30 122 Recorded 87 49 19 95 0.00 2013 95 54 25 125 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .5" .5" .5" .5" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --The warm weekend temperatures are expected to end by mid-week as a trough of low pressure moves into the region. Expect windy conditions Monday through Wed- nesday with temperatures cooling to below normal levels by mid-week. Longer term forecasts suggest this system may stall over the region & keep the cooler temp- eratures in place for much of the week. A stalled system may also produce a few showers in high elevation areas. --The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast for the monsoon months of July- September indicates a bias for both above normal temperatures & precipitation. The CPC has issued an El Nino Advisory for this summer. Forecast models now indicate a 65% chance for El Nino conditions to develop this summer. El Nino conditions are often associated with above normal winter precipitation. SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 25, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ************* 656 -2 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15********** 515 -3 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ******* 332 -2 days | | | | | | | | | 5/15*** 152 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 24 v = Heat Units on MAY 17; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1140; Last year = 1143; Normal = 1064 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 4 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 116 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 18 - MAY 24 This Week : MAY 25 - MAY 31 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 93 55 30 122 ---- Normal 95 55 29 128 Recorded 92 52 19 116 0.00 2013 97 59 18 142 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .48" .48" .48" .48" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will develop over AZ early in the week, resulting in clear skies & hot temperatures through mid-week. Tropical moisture is forecast to leak into the region Thursday & Friday, resulting in a chance for scattered thunderstorms in central & eastern production areas. Slightly cooler temperatures will develop with the moisture. Hot & dry June weather is expected to develop by the weekend. --The N fertilizer application window for cotton begins at pinhead square & ends at peak bloom (see graph). Split N applications are recommended to improve N use efficiency. For more information go to: http://cals.arizona.edu/crops/cotton/soilmgt/nitrogen_management.html SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 1, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v| | | | | | | | 4/1 **************** 800 -1 day | v | | | | | | | | 4/15************* 659 -2 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ********** 476 -1 day | v | | | | | | | | 5/15****** 296 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 31 v = Heat Units on MAY 24; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1284; Last year = 1285; Normal = 1193 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 144 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 25 - MAY 31 This Week : JUN 1 - JUN 7 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 95 55 29 128 ---- Normal 98 59 30 142 Recorded 98 59 33 144 0.00 2013 102 63 30 158 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .62" .52" .52" .52" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Strong high pressure will remain in place much of this week, resulting in hot days, mild nights & very low humidity. Expect an increase in daytime winds & some slight cooling late in the week as a trough of low pressure approaches the area. Temperatures should average ~3 degrees above normal for the week. --Crop water use increases rapidly at this time of year due to hot & dry weather & rapid canopy development. Growers are encouraged to monitor soil moisture and avoid water stress. Water stress often results in the shedding of small squares. ----Split N fertilizer applications are recommended between pinhead square & peak bloom to improve N use efficiency. For more information go to: http://cals.arizona.edu/crops/cotton/soilmgt/nitrogen_management.html SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 8, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | 4/1 ******************* 950 -1 day | v| | | | | | | | 4/15**************** 809 -1 day | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ************* 626 -1 day | v | | | | | | | | 5/15********* 446 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 7 v = Heat Units on MAY 31; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1434; Last year = 1442; Normal = 1334 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 150 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 1 - JUN 7 This Week : JUN 8 - JUN 14 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 98 59 30 142 ---- Normal 98 59 33 144 Recorded 104 59 21 150 0.00 2013 104 68 28 174 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .92" .67" .55" .55" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will continue to dominate AZ weather this week, resulting in clear skies hot days & mild evenings. The warmest temperatures are expected early in the week. Slightly cooler conditions are expected mid-week as a weak disturbance moves north of the region. Some moisture may leak into southeastern AZ late in the week, resulting in a few scattered thunderstorms in high elevation areas. Temperatures for the week should average about 2 degrees above normal. --Crop water use increases rapidly at this time of year due to hot & dry weather & rapid canopy development. Growers are encouraged to monitor soil moisture and avoid water stress. Water stress often results in the shedding of small squares. SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 15, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | |v | | | | | | 4/1 ********************** 1114 0 days | | v | | | | | | | 4/15******************* 973 0 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 **************** 790 0 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/15************ 610 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 14 v = Heat Units on JUN 7; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1598; Last year = 1616; Normal = 1478 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 165 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 8 - JUN 14 This Week : JUN 15 - JUN 21 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 98 59 33 144 ---- Normal 101 61 35 154 Recorded 102 64 32 165 0.00 2013 102 59 37 149 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.24" .98" .65" .57" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A series of atmospheric disturbances will pass north of AZ early this week. These systems will keep temperatures at or slightly below normal through Wednes- day, but will produce several days with very windy conditions. Humidity levels should remain low statewide with the exception of southeastern AZ where slightly elevated humdity levels may result in a few widely scattered high elevation thunderstorms Monday & Tuesday. High pressure will redevelop over AZ late in the week, resulting in hot & dry conditions with less wind. --Growers are encouraged to monitor the crop for signs of water stress. Dry & windy weather accelerates water use & may require shortened irrigation intervals to avoid water stress. Water stress can result in the shedding of small squares. SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 22, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | 4/1 ************************* 1271 0 days | | |v | | | | | | 4/15*********************** 1130 0 days | | v | | | | | | | 5/1 ******************* 947 0 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/15*************** 767 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 21 v = Heat Units on JUN 14; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1755; Last year = 1765; Normal = 1632 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 156 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 15 - JUN 21 This Week : JUN 22 - JUN 28 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 101 61 35 154 ---- Normal 102 64 41 163 Recorded 99 63 38 156 0.00 2013 104 64 26 164 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.35" 1.13" .83" .54" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/15 6/16 6/17 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Typical June weather is in store for much of AZ this week. Expect hot days & mild nights with clear skies & very low humidity. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Great Basin on Thursday & will produce a period of windy conditions along with slightly cooler temperatures late in the week. --Modeled heat stress levels are included in this advisory for the first time this week. These stress levels are estimated using temperature & humidity data collected at local AZMET stations. Data from the real time heat stress monitors that measure crop temperatures using infrared thermometers are available at: www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm#HEATSTRESS SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 29, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | |v | | | | | 4/1 ***************************** 1442 +1 day | | | v| | | | | | 4/15************************** 1301 0 days | | |v | | | | | | 5/1 ********************** 1118 +1 day | |v | | | | | | | 5/15******************* 938 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 28 v = Heat Units on JUN 21; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1926; Last year = 1929; Normal = 1795 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 172 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 22 - JUN 28 This Week : JUN 29 - JUL 5 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 102 64 41 163 ---- Normal 101 67 46 170 Recorded 101 67 36 172 0.00 2013 99 72 38 182 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.76" 1.52" 1.2" .88" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/22 6/23 6/24 6/25 6/26 6/27 6/28 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure centered over western AZ will produce very hot & dry conditions through mid-week. The high is expected to shift toward the 4-Corners region late this week, allowing the first surge of monsoon moisture to enter AZ. Expect a gradual increase in humidity from east to west across AZ as the week progresses. Temperatures should cool a few degrees with the arrival of the moisture. The best chances for precipitation will be in southeastern production areas. --High temperatures when combined with high humidity can produce heat stress which leads to an increase in small boll abortion in cotton. Growers can monitor current heat stress conditions at: www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm#HEATSTRESS SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 6, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | 4/1 ********************************* 1627 +1 day | | | | v | | | | | 4/15****************************** 1486 +1 day | | | v | | | | | | 5/1 ************************** 1303 +1 day | | |v | | | | | | 5/15********************** 1123 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 5 v = Heat Units on JUN 28; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2111; Last year = 2111; Normal = 1966 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 185 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 29 - JUL 5 This Week : JUL 6 - JUL 12 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 101 67 46 170 ---- Normal 99 67 53 171 Recorded 100 72 51 185 0.06 2013 100 73 60 188 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2" 1.76" 1.45" 1.15" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/29 6/30 7/1 7/2 7/3 7/4 7/5 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --The monsoon arrived last week with a strong surge of humidity & cooler daytime temperatures. However, the humidity & clouds resulted in elevated night tempera- tures in most areas. Heat stress was limited to L1 conditions at most low eleva- tion production areas (see below). High humidity will remain in place durng the first half of this week. An inverted trough is forecast to move across the state early this week, resulting in an uptick in thunderstorm activity. The high pres- sure center driving the monsoon flow is expected to shift west over AZ during the latter half of the week, resulting in less humidity & thunderstorm activity. --For information on heat stress: www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm#HEATSTRESS SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 13, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 4/1 ************************************ 1798 +1 day | | | | v| | | | | 4/15********************************* 1657 +1 day | | | | v | | | | | 5/1 ***************************** 1474 +1 day | | | v | | | | | | 5/15************************** 1294 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 12 v = Heat Units on JUL 5; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2282; Last year = 2299; Normal = 2137 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 171 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 6 - JUL 12 This Week : JUL 13 - JUL 19 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 99 67 53 171 ---- Normal 99 68 55 173 Recorded 97 68 61 171 0.27 2013 93 68 62 168 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.84" 1.65" 1.4" 1.16" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/6 7/7 7/8 7/9 7/10 7/11 7/12 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --An active monsoon remained in place across much of AZ last week, resulting in high humidity & widespread precipitation. More humidity & thunderstorm activity is expected through Tuesday as another easterly wave moves across the region. High pressure will build back over AZ by midweek, producing a drier & less favor- able monsoon flow pattern. Expect less clouds, warmer temperatures & reduced chances for precipitation Wednesday-Friday. Longer range forecast models call for a return to higher humidity & more favorable monsoonal flow by the weekend. --The cooler & cloudy weather has limited heat stress in most production areas. For information on heat stress: www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm#HEATSTRESS SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 20, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 4/1 *************************************** 1974 +1 day | | | | | v | | | | 4/15************************************* 1833 +1 day | | | | v | | | | | 5/1 ********************************* 1650 +1 day | | | | v | | | | | 5/15***************************** 1470 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 19 v = Heat Units on JUL 12; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2458; Last year = 2467; Normal = 2310 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 177 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 13 - JUL 19 This Week : JUL 20 - JUL 26 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 99 68 55 173 ---- Normal 98 68 58 173 Recorded 97 70 57 177 0.04 2013 91 70 64 174 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.28" 2.07" 1.8" 1.53" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/13 7/14 7/15 7/16 7/17 7/18 7/19 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Strong high pressure will develop over AZ early this week, resulting in very hot & generally dry conditions through mid-week. Forecast models are calling for record heat Tuesday-Thursday with high temperatures exceeding 110F in the low deserts. Humidity levels will remain low through mid-week, then increase as a more supportive monsoon flow regime develops late in the week. Expect increased thunderstorm activity along with slightly cooler temperatures by Friday. --Avoid water stress during this period of extreme heat. For information on heat stress conditions go to www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm#HEATSTRESS SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 27, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v| | | | 4/1 ******************************************* 2153 +2 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/15**************************************** 2012 +1 day | | | | | v | | | | 5/1 ************************************* 1829 +2 days | | | | v | | | | | 5/15********************************* 1649 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 26 v = Heat Units on JUL 19; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2637; Last year = 2641; Normal = 2483 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 178 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 20 - JUL 26 This Week : JUL 27 - AUG 2 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 98 68 58 173 ---- Normal 96 68 59 169 Recorded 101 69 56 178 0.62 2013 97 68 62 170 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.44" 2.38" 2.11" 1.83" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/20 7/21 7/22 7/23 7/24 7/25 7/26 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High humidity along with an upper level disturbance will produce scattered thunderstorms Monday. High pressure will redevelop over AZ beginning Tuesday, resulting in lower humidity, reduced chances for precipitation & hotter temp- eratures through Thursday. A more favorable monsoon flow with increasing hum- idity is expected to return by the coming weekend. --Last week produced the hottest temperatures of the growing season with sev- eral locations reporting 117F. Humidity levels were sufficient to produce L2 heat stress in central/western AZ. L2 stress often results in heavy fruit shed. For more on heat stress see: www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm#HEATSTRESS SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 3, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 ********************************************** 2322 +2 days | | | | | v| | | | 4/15******************************************** 2181 +1 day | | | | | v | | | | 5/1 **************************************** 1998 +2 days | | | | | v | | | | 5/15************************************ 1818 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 2 v = Heat Units on JUL 26; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2806; Last year = 2811; Normal = 2652 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 169 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 27 - AUG 2 This Week : AUG 3 - AUG 9 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 96 68 59 169 ---- Normal 97 68 59 170 Recorded 95 69 63 169 0.63 2013 95 66 58 161 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.92" 1.92" 1.86" 1.64" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 7/31 8/1 8/2 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A dry southwesterly flow will develop over AZ this week leading a downturn in monsoon activity. Expect clear skies with above normal temperatures & lower hum- idity through Friday. Precipitation will be limited to the mountains of eastern AZ. A more humid flow pattern is expected to return by this weekend. --The Climate Prediction Center(CPC) August forecast indicates a slight wet bias for the eastern half of AZ with near normal precipitation in western AZ. August temperatures are expected to run near normal. The CPC forecast for August thru October indicates a moderate wet bias statewide. August thru October temperatures are forecast to run near normal except for a slight warm bias for western AZ. SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 10, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 ************************************************** 2487 +1 day | | | | | | v | | | 4/15*********************************************** 2346 +1 day | | | | | v| | | | 5/1 ******************************************* 2163 +1 day | | | | | v | | | | 5/15**************************************** 1983 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 9 v = Heat Units on AUG 2; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2971; Last year = 2972; Normal = 2822 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 164 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 3 - AUG 9 This Week : AUG 10 - AUG 16 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 97 68 59 170 ---- Normal 97 67 59 168 Recorded 95 66 59 164 0.15 2013 100 70 55 178 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.98" 1.98" 1.98" 1.91" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/3 8/4 8/5 8/6 8/7 8/8 8/9 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A subtropical disturbance is expected enhance shower & thunderstorm activity early this week. Humidity levels increased over the weekend & this disturbance will provide additional lifting to enhance storm development. The best day for precipitation will be Tuesday as the disturbance moves across AZ. A slow drying trend with reduced chances for precipitation is expected late in the week. --The Climate Prediction Center forecast for August thru October indicates a moderate wet bias statewide. August thru October temperatures are forecast to run near normal except for a slight warm bias in western AZ. The CPC will issue the next set of fall & winter forecasts next week. SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 17, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 ***************************************************** 2655 +1 day | | | | | | v | | | 4/15************************************************** 2514 +1 day | | | | | | v | | | 5/1 *********************************************** 2331 +2 days | | | | | v| | | | 5/15******************************************* 2151 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 16 v = Heat Units on AUG 9; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3139; Last year = 3150; Normal = 2990 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 168 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 10 - AUG 16 This Week : AUG 17 - AUG 23 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 97 67 59 168 ---- Normal 96 66 59 165 Recorded 94 68 64 168 0.00 2013 99 70 55 176 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.73" 1.73" 1.73" 1.73" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A wet, relatively cool week is on tap for much of AZ. The high pressure system that drives monsoon flow will remain in good position to generate afternoon & evening thunderstorms this week. In addition, a trough is expected to develop off the CA coast & spawn a closed low pressure system. Closed lows provide additional lift to assist shower & thunderstorm development. High humidity, cooler conditions & thunderstorm activity are expected as the low moves slowly toward AZ. Present forecasts indicate this system will move into AZ late this week & tap into added moisture from a dying tropical system presently near southern Baja. Expect a mild & potentially wet end to the week. SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 24, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 4/1 ******************************************************** 2803 +1 day | | | | | | v | | | 4/15***************************************************** 2662 0 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/1 ************************************************** 2479 +1 day | | | | | | v | | | 5/15********************************************** 2299 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 23 v = Heat Units on AUG 16; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3287; Last year = 3326; Normal = 3155 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 146 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 17 - AUG 23 This Week : AUG 24 - AUG 30 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 96 66 59 165 ---- Normal 96 65 58 160 Recorded 90 64 61 146 0.40 2013 93 68 59 169 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.61" 1.61" 1.61" 1.61" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A strong surge of moisture aided by Hurricane Marie & an approaching disturbance from the Pacific Northwest are expected to produce widepread & potentially heavy rainfall in southeast & central AZ Monday & Tuesday. Some precipitation is possible in western AZ as well. Cooler temperatures are expected as this system moves through the region. Sunny & much drier conditions will return late in the week and temperatures should return to normal by the weekend. --The new Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts for fall, winter & spring show a weak to moderate bias for above normal precipitation. The CPC forecasts reflect the general consensus that a weak to moderate El Nino will develop later this year. SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 31, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 4/1 *********************************************************** 2951 0 days | | | | | | v | | 4/15******************************************************** 2810 0 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/1 ***************************************************** 2627 0 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/15************************************************* 2447 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 30 v = Heat Units on AUG 23; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3435; Last year = 3495; Normal = 3314 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 150 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 24 - AUG 30 This Week : AUG 31 - SEP 6 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 96 65 58 160 ---- Normal 95 64 56 156 Recorded 93 62 57 150 0.25 2013 99 68 61 171 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.68" 1.68" 1.68" 1.68" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/25 8/26 8/27 8/28 8/29 8/30 8/31 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Current hot & dry conditions will continue through mid-week. Humidity will reenter the state beginning Wednesday & increase through the coming weekend. Expect an increasing chance for thunderstorms late in the week, especially if tropical activity developing south of Baja moves closer to AZ. Temperatures should cool a few degrees with the return of moisture mid-week. --Current long-term forecasts show a moderate wet bias for this fall & winter. This is the final advisory for 2014. Have a safe & profitable harvest season.