HARQUAHALA MAR 6, 2016 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ********************** | ********* 444 ******** | ********************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 5 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - FEB 27 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 17 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : FEB 28 - MAR 5 This Week : MAR 6 - MAR 12 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 72 39 28 42 ---- Normal 77 41 30 58 Recorded 88 44 30 93 0.01 2015 86 50 34 99 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 63.3 MAR 3 ; Min = 59.5 FEB 28 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Cloudy & cooler conditions are expected early this week as a storm system moves across northern Mexico. Temperatures will cool to below normal levels Monday & Tuesday then rebound to above normal by late in the week. Precipitation with this system is expected to be light with highest amounts in southern AZ. A 2nd storm is expected this weekend & may provide another round of cool & wet weather. --Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) should exceed 60F prior to planting. Soils approach 60F at 8am when minimum air temperatures (at sunrise) remain above 47F. To review local soil temperature data go to http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet & click on the button labeled Agricultural Stations Current Conditions. HARQUAHALA MAR 13, 2016 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ************************** | *********** 513 ********** | ************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 12 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 5 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 17 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 6 - MAR 12 This Week : MAR 13 - MAR 19 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 77 41 30 58 ---- Normal 79 44 30 66 Recorded 80 44 30 69 0.00 2015 82 54 38 95 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 66.7 MAR 6 ; Min = 58.3 MAR 8 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Sunny, warm & dry conditions are expected this week with temperatures averaging nearly 10 degrees above normal. Current 10-14 day forecasts suggest the rest of March will continue warm & dry. Longer term, the 90-day forecast continues shows a strong wet bias, suggesting wet spring conditions. -Heat unit accumulation at most low elevation production areas now exceeds 400 which signals the opening of the planting window for long, full season cotton. However, minimum soil temperatures are still below optimal levels in many areas due to cool morning temperatures. Minimum soil temperatures should exceed 60F prior to planting. Soils approach 60F at 8am when minimum air temperatures stay above 47F. For current soil temperatures go to http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet. HARQUAHALA MAR 6, 2016 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ********************** | ********* 444 ******** | ********************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 5 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - FEB 27 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 17 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : FEB 28 - MAR 5 This Week : MAR 6 - MAR 12 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 72 39 28 42 ---- Normal 77 41 30 58 Recorded 88 44 30 93 0.01 2015 86 50 34 99 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 63.3 MAR 3 ; Min = 59.5 FEB 28 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Cloudy & cooler conditions are expected early this week as a storm system moves across northern Mexico. Temperatures will cool to below normal levels Monday & Tuesday then rebound to above normal by late in the week. Precipitation with this system is expected to be light with highest amounts in southern AZ. A 2nd storm is expected this weekend & may provide another round of cool & wet weather. --Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) should exceed 60F prior to planting. Soils approach 60F at 8am when minimum air temperatures (at sunrise) remain above 47F. To review local soil temperature data go to http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet & click on the button labeled Agricultural Stations Current Conditions. HARQUAHALA MAR 20, 2016 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ****************************** | ************* 604 ************ | ****************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 19 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 12 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 19 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 13 - MAR 19 This Week : MAR 20 - MAR 26 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 79 44 30 66 ---- Normal 80 45 29 69 Recorded 87 45 30 89 0.00 2015 90 48 44 102 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 67.8 MAR 19 ; Min = 61 MAR 13 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -A sunny & hot Monday will be followed by windy & cooler conditions midweek as a storm system passes north of the region. Temperatures will cool from 15 degrees above normal to near normal Wednesday & Thursday. Warmer conditions are expected late in the week, followed by the arrival of another storm system late this weekend. No precipitation is expected this week. The CPC's latest long range forecast for April exhibits a moderate warm bias & a weak wet bias (exception: normal in SW AZ). Forecasts for April-June exhibit weak warm & wet biases. -Minimum soil temperatures should exceed 60F at planting. Soils approach 60F at 8am when minimum air temperatures stay above 47F. For current soil temperatures go to http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet. HARQUAHALA MAR 27, 2016 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | *********************************** | **************** 693 ************** | *********************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 26 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 19 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 20 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 20 - MAR 26 This Week : MAR 27 - APR 2 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 80 45 29 69 ---- Normal 80 46 29 71 Recorded 86 47 24 89 0.00 2015 90 52 34 111 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 70 MAR 22 ; Min = 63.7 MAR 24 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -A strong storm system will move across the Great Basin this week, bringing high winds & below normal temperatures Tuesday through Thursday. Precipitation with this storm will be limited to high elevation areas of central & northern AZ. Temperatures will return to above normal levels by the weekend. -Snow pack above Lake Powell has diminished due to recent dry weather & presently rests at 92% of the 30-yr median value. Present forecasts for Colorado River flow for April-July call for 5,200,000 Acre Feet or 80% of median flow. -Minimum soil temperatures (STn) should exceed 60F at planting. STn approach 60F when minimum air temperatures stay above 47F. For current weather including soil temperatures go to http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet. Click on "Agricultural Stations" HARQUAHALA APR 3, 2016 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ************************************** | ***************** 760 **************** | ************************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 2 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 26 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 18 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 27 - APR 2 This Week : APR 3 - APR 9 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 80 46 29 71 ---- Normal 80 46 29 73 Recorded 79 45 28 66 0.00 2015 82 45 25 76 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 68.7 MAR 28 ; Min = 62.8 MAR 30 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Mostly sunny & dry through mid-week with very warm daytime temperatures. A more unsettled pattern will develop late this week as a pair of storms moves across the area. Expect increasing clouds & humidity, cooler temperatures & a chance for precipitation Thursday-Sunday. Neither storm system is cold, but temperatures are expected to return to near normal as these systems impact the region. -Snow pack above Lake Powell improved last week & currently rests at rests at 95% of the 30-yr median value. Present Colorado River flow forecasts for April- July call for 5,360,000 Acre Feet or 83% of median flow. -A good cotton planting forecast: clear & dry weather with highs above 80F, lows above 47F & minimum soil temperatures above 60F. HARQUAHALA APR 10, 2016 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ******************************************** | ******************** 873 ******************* | ******************************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 9 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 2 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 19 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 3 - APR 9 This Week : APR 10 - APR 16 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 80 46 29 73 ---- Normal 83 47 29 82 Recorded 90 53 36 114 0.03 2015 84 50 30 92 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 75.2 APR 7 ; Min = 66.9 APR 3 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A weak storm system will pass through AZ Monday & Tuesday, resulting in cooler temperatures & a chance for showers. Warmer & drier conditions will return mid- week, only to be followed by another storm system this weekend that will result in cooler temperatures & a chance for precipitation. Chances for precipitation from the weekend system will be higher in more northern production areas. -A good cotton planting forecast: clear & dry weather with highs above 80F, lows above 47F & minimum soil temperatures above 60F. --Pinhead square (PHS) refers to the stage of cotton development when the crop first forms flower buds (squares). Early plantings in western AZ should be at or beyond PHS which typically occurs at ~700 heat units after planting. HARQUAHALA APR 17, 2016 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ************************************************ | ********************** 957 ********************* | ************************************************ | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 16 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 9 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 18 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 10 - APR 16 This Week : APR 17 - APR 23 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 83 47 29 82 ---- Normal 86 48 30 89 Recorded 81 52 41 84 0.17 2015 84 52 29 91 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 70.7 APR 10 ; Min = 63.3 APR 11 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will develop over AZ during the work week, resulting in clear skies & very warm temperatures. Another storm system is expected to impact AZ this weekend, resulting in cooler, unsettled conditions. Longer term forecasts suggest this unsettled pattern could persist through the end of the month. --The storm system that moved across Colorado this weekend produced heavy snow in the Colorado mountains, increasing spring runoff estimates by ~300,000 AF. --Pinhead square (PHS) refers to the stage of cotton development when the crop first forms flower buds (squares). PHS typically occurs ~700 heat units after planting. Early plantings in western AZ should be at or beyond PHS. HARQUAHALA APR 24, 2016 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ****************************************************** | ************************ 1072 ************************ | ****************************************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 23 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 16 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 18 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 17 - APR 23 This Week : APR 24 - APR 30 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 86 48 30 89 ---- Normal 88 51 31 102 Recorded 92 52 30 115 0.00 2015 91 55 42 118 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 75.2 APR 23 ; Min = 69.4 APR 17 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Three storm systems will impact AZ this week, resulting in windy conditions, much cooler temperatures & a chance for rain. The 1st system will pass north of AZ Monday, bringing high winds & much cooler temperatures. The next 2 systems will move across AZ Thursday & Sunday, bringing more wind, cooler temperatures & a slight chance for rain. Temperatures should average ~5F below normal. --Growers in central AZ are encouraged to plant shorter season varieties as HU accumulation now exceeds 900-1000 across the region (see graph above). --Pinhead square (PHS) refers to the stage of cotton development when the crop first forms squares. PHS typically occurs ~700 heat units after planting. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 1, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | | 3/15************ 611 +6 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ******** 408 +4 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15**** 210 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to APR 30 v = Heat Units on APR 23; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1155; Last year = 1203 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 16 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 82 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 24 - APR 30 This Week : MAY 1 - MAY 7 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 88 51 31 102 ---- Normal 90 52 32 110 Recorded 81 51 35 82 0.00 2015 82 55 48 98 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 Water Use (last week): .39" .39" .39" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will develop over AZ early this week, resulting in clear skies & much warmer temperatures through Thursday. A strong storm system will impact the region late this week. Expect very windy conditions Thursday, followed by much cooler temperatures through the weekend. Forecasts suggest a slight chance for rain, particularly in more northerly production areas. --Growers are encouraged to plant shorter season varieties as heat unit (HU) accumulation now exceeds 800 in most production areas. --Pinhead square (PHS) refers to the stage of cotton development when the crop first forms squares, typically at nodes 5-7. PHS typically occurs ~700 HU after planting. These first squares develop into flowers ~1200 HU after planting. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 8, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | | 3/15************** 716 +5 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ********** 513 +3 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15****** 315 0 days | | | | | | | | | 5/1 ** 94 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 7 v = Heat Units on APR 30; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1260; Last year = 1301 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 14 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 105 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 1 - MAY 7 This Week : MAY 8 - MAY 14 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 90 52 32 110 ---- Normal 93 54 34 120 Recorded 89 52 42 105 0.00 2015 82 54 42 94 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 Water Use (last week): .39" .39" .39" .39" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --The cool weekend weather will dissipate early this week as high pressure re- develops over AZ. Expect sunny skies, low humidity & a rapid warming trend. Daytime temperatures will run more than 10F above normal late in the week with many low elevation production areas topping 100F. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected for the weekend as another storm system passes to the north. --Pinhead square (PHS) refers to the stage of cotton development when the crop first forms squares, typically at nodes 5-7. PHS typically occurs ~700 HU after planting. These first squares develop into flowers ~1200 HU after planting. --The May 1 forecast for Colorado River flow (Apr-Jul) is 5.5 MAF (77% of avg). More recent ESP modeling projects ~5.8 MAF, reflecting recent wet weather. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 15, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | 3/15***************** 842 +5 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ************* 639 +3 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15********* 441 0 days |v | | | | | | | | 5/1 **** 220 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 14 v = Heat Units on MAY 7; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1386; Last year = 1395 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 14 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 127 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 8 - MAY 14 This Week : MAY 15 - MAY 21 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 93 54 34 120 ---- Normal 95 57 38 132 Recorded 95 56 45 127 0.00 2015 82 54 48 96 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .53" .39" .39" .39" .39" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A storm system will drop into the Southwest this week, bringing increased winds, cooler temperatures & a slight chance for precipitation mid-week. Precipitation is more likely in northern & central production areas. Warmer & drier weather will return late in the week. --Recent wet weather in the Colorado River Basin has improved flow forecasts. The most recent Ensemble Streamflow Prediction calls for April-July flow of 6.2 MAF, 86% of average. Current precipitation forecasts call for another wet week in the Colorado Basin which could further improve flow forecasts. --First squares typically appear at nodes 5-7 at ~700 HU after planting (see graph above). These first squares develop into flowers ~1200 HU after planting. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 22, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | v| | | | | | | 3/15******************* 972 +5 days | v| | | | | | | | 4/1 *************** 769 +3 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15*********** 571 0 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ******* 350 0 days | | | | | | | | | 5/15** 114 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 21 v = Heat Units on MAY 14; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1516; Last year = 1491 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 14 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 130 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 15 - MAY 21 This Week : MAY 22 - MAY 28 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 95 57 38 132 ---- Normal 93 57 38 127 Recorded 89 59 49 130 0.09 2015 93 55 46 127 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .73" .46" .42" .42" .42" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Expect cool & breezy conditions as a trough of low pressure develops over the Southwest this week. Storm systems associated with this pattern will track north of AZ, resulting in little chance for precipitation. However, these systems will draw cooler air into AZ & generate windy conditions at times. --The most recent Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the Colorado River calls for spring flow of 6,600,000 Acre Feet (92% of average) with more precipitation expected late this week. --Nitrogen fertilizer is best applied in split applications between pinhead square & peak bloom. For more details see publication az1243 at: http://extension.arizona.edu/sites/extension.arizona.edu/files/pubs/az1243.pdf HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 29, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | |v | | | | | | 3/15********************** 1081 +3 days | |v | | | | | | | 4/1 ****************** 878 +2 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15************** 680 -1 day | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ********* 459 -1 day |v | | | | | | | | 5/15**** 223 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 28 v = Heat Units on MAY 21; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1625; Last year = 1618 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 12 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 109 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 22 - MAY 28 This Week : MAY 29 - JUN 4 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 93 57 38 127 ---- Normal 99 59 37 140 Recorded 89 53 41 109 0.00 2015 95 57 45 135 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .85" .59" .4" .4" .4" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will develop over AZ this week, producing clear & dry weather with very hot daytime temperatures, particularly during the latter half of the week. Some moisture may leak into far southeast AZ Monday & Tuesday, producing a slight chance of high elevation thunderstorms. Central & western production areas should remain dry this week. The most recent Ensemble Streamflow Predict- ion for the Colorado River calls for 6,660,000 Acre Feet of spring flow (93% of average); more precipitation is expected in the basin this week. --Nitrogen fertilizer is best applied in split applications between pinhead square & peak bloom. For more details see publication az1243 at: http://extension.arizona.edu/sites/extension.arizona.edu/files/pubs/az1243.pdf. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 5, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | 3/15************************* 1232 +4 days | | v | | | | | | 4/1 ********************* 1029 +2 days | v | | | | | | | 4/15***************** 831 0 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ************ 610 0 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/15******* 374 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 4 v = Heat Units on MAY 28; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1776; Last year = 1753 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 12 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 150 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 29 - JUN 4 This Week : JUN 5 - JUN 11 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 99 59 37 140 ---- Normal 98 60 39 143 Recorded 104 60 44 150 0.00 2015 99 66 53 167 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.16" .87" .58" .45" .45" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will remain in place Monday resulting in one final day of very hot temperatures. A trough will pass through the Great Basin Tuesday producing a cooling trend that will bring temperatures back to normal by mid-week. Some moisture is expected to leak into central & southeast AZ during the latter half of the week resulting in widely scattered mountain thunderstorms. No significant precipitation is expected in cotton production areas from these storms. --The most recent Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the Colorado River remains unchanged at ~6,660,000 Acre Feet of spring flow (92% of average). HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 12, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | |v | | | | | 3/15**************************** 1404 +5 days | | | v | | | | | | 4/1 ************************ 1201 +4 days | | v| | | | | | | 4/15******************** 1003 +1 day | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 **************** 782 +1 day | v | | | | | | | | 5/15*********** 546 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 11 v = Heat Units on JUN 4; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1948; Last year = 1920 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 12 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 171 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 5 - JUN 11 This Week : JUN 12 - JUN 18 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 98 60 39 143 ---- Normal 102 62 40 155 Recorded 103 67 55 171 0.00 2015 109 70 50 183 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.4" 1.1" .82" .5" .45" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Mild temperatures early in the week will give way to very hot temperatures by the coming weekend as intense high pressure develops over AZ. High tempera- tures this coming weekend are expected to reach 115F or higher in lower eleva- tion production areas. Clear skies & low humidity will accompany the heat, pro- ducing high rates of evaporative demand. Growers are encouraged to monitor soil moisture & avoid water stress. Water stress can lead to square abortion & lower rates of fruit retention. --The most recent Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the Colorado River calls for ~6,700,000 Acre Feet of spring flow (93% of average). HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 19, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | 3/15******************************* 1556 +4 days | | | v | | | | | 4/1 *************************** 1353 +3 days | | | v | | | | | | 4/15*********************** 1155 +1 day | | v | | | | | | | 5/1 ******************* 934 +1 day | v | | | | | | | | 5/15************** 698 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 18 v = Heat Units on JUN 11; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2100; Last year = 2103 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 12 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 152 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 12 - JUN 18 This Week : JUN 19 - JUN 25 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 102 62 40 155 ---- Normal 104 65 42 165 Recorded 99 61 45 152 0.00 2015 108 73 48 194 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.64" 1.34" 1.06" .73" .45" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15 6/16 6/17 6/18 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Intense high pressure will keep extreme temperatures in place early this week. Some cooling is expected mid-week as moisture from a tropical system moves into the region, though temperatures will remain above normal. The moisture may pro- duce thunderstorms in/adjacent to high elevation areas in central & eastern AZ. Drier air will return to central & western areas late in the week. --Heat stress developed in selected areas this past weekend, particularly in locations where winds kept night temperatures very warm. The influx of moisture this week may produce additional & more widespread heat stress. Heat stress con- ditions can be monitored at: http://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/data/00stress1.txt HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 26, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 3/15*********************************** 1752 +6 days | | | | v | | | | | 4/1 ******************************* 1549 +4 days | | | v| | | | | | 4/15*************************** 1351 +2 days | | |v | | | | | | 5/1 *********************** 1130 +2 days | v | | | | | | | 5/15****************** 894 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 25 v = Heat Units on JUN 18; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2296; Last year = 2297 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 12 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 196 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 19 - JUN 25 This Week : JUN 26 - JUL 2 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 104 65 42 165 ---- Normal 107 69 44 176 Recorded 108 75 51 196 0.00 2015 106 79 60 204 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.28" 1.93" 1.58" 1.2" .79" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/19 6/20 6/20 6/21 6/22 6/23 6/24 Stress ns L1 L1 L1 ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Strong early season monsoon flow will develop this week, replacing last week's intense heat. Expect elevated humidity levels statewide with a chance for after- noon & evening thunderstorms each day. Temperatures have already moderated to near normal levels in central & eastern production areas & will return to normal in western production areas with the arrival of the moisture early this week. --Heat stress developed in some low desert locations last week, but generally registered in the less severe Level 1 category. Higher humidity levels this week could generate more severe Level 2 stress in locations where night temperatures remain high. More details at http://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/data/00stress1.txt HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 3, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 3/15*************************************** 1954 +6 days | | | | v | | | | 4/1 *********************************** 1751 +5 days | | | | v | | | | | 4/15******************************* 1553 +3 days | | | v| | | | | | 5/1 *************************** 1332 +3 days | | v | | | | | | 5/15********************** 1096 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 2 v = Heat Units on JUN 25; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2498; Last year = 2501 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 13 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 204 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 26 - JUL 2 This Week : JUL 3 - JUL 9 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 107 69 44 176 ---- Normal 105 72 52 184 Recorded 104 78 60 204 0.00 2015 102 73 57 187 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.23" 1.93" 1.64" 1.31" .96" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/27 6/28 6/29 6/30 7/1 7/2 7/3 Stress L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 ns L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure is expected to cut off the monsoon flow regime this week. Expect near-normal temperatures with clear skies & low humidity. The exception to this forecast is in southeastern AZ where a mid-week surge of humidity may produce isolated showers & thunderstorms Wednesday & Thursday. --Heat stress developed in many low desert production areas last week. However, temperatures cooled substantially & much of the heat stress registered as the less severe Level 1 stress. Lower humidity & cooler night temperatures should minimize problems with heat stress this week. Local heat stress conditions can be monitored at http://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/data/00stress1.txt HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 10, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 3/15******************************************* 2149 +6 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/1 *************************************** 1946 +5 days | | | | v | | | | 4/15*********************************** 1748 +3 days | | | | v | | | | | 5/1 ******************************* 1527 +3 days | | | v | | | | | | 5/15************************** 1291 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 9 v = Heat Units on JUL 2; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2693; Last year = 2688 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 13 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 195 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 3 - JUL 9 This Week : JUL 10 - JUL 16 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 105 72 52 184 ---- Normal 107 75 55 191 Recorded 106 74 52 195 0.00 2015 104 73 45 193 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.68" 2.5" 2.17" 1.8" 1.41" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/3 7/4 7/5 7/6 7/7 7/8 7/9 Stress L1 L1 ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Dry southwesterly flow will remain in place through mid-week, resulting in hot days, low humidity & moderate nighttime temperatures. Expect temperatures to run ~3 degrees above normal during this period. Monsoon flow is expected to redevelop later in the week, resulting in slightly cooler daytime tempera- tures, higher humidity & a return to afternoon & evening thunderstorms. This pattern is expected to continue through the weekend & into early next week. --Spring flow season for the Colorado River ends on 31 July. Flow is expected to total 6.7 MAF (94% of average). Projections for the water year (ends 30 September) now stand at 9.9 MAF or 92% of average. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 17, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 3/15*********************************************** 2345 +6 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/1 ******************************************* 2142 +5 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/15*************************************** 1944 +4 days | | | | v | | | | 5/1 ********************************** 1723 +3 days | | | | v | | | | | 5/15****************************** 1487 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 16 v = Heat Units on JUL 9; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2889; Last year = 2881 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 13 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 196 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 10 - JUL 16 This Week : JUL 17 - JUL 23 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 107 75 55 191 ---- Normal 105 77 57 195 Recorded 109 74 45 196 0.00 2015 102 73 61 191 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.85" 2.85" 2.66" 2.26" 1.85" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/10 7/11 7/12 7/13 7/14 7/15 7/16 Stress ns ns ns ns L1 L1 L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Monsoon flow will remain in place through mid-week, resulting in near-normal temperatures, elevated humidity levels & a chance for afternoon/evening thunder- storms. Moisture levels & precipitation chances will be highest in central & eastern production areas. Drier air is expected to enter the region late in the week, resulting in much warmer temperatures & a reduction in the chances for precipitation. Temperatures for the week should average ~2 degrees above normal. --Elevated temperature & humidity levels should generate heat stress in low desert production areas this week. Heat stress causes shedding of young bolls (<5 days post bloom). See http://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm#HEATSTRESS HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 24, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 3/15*************************************************** 2554 +7 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 *********************************************** 2351 +6 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/15******************************************* 2153 +4 days | | | | | v | | | | 5/1 *************************************** 1932 +4 days | | | | v| | | | | 5/15********************************** 1696 +4 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 23 v = Heat Units on JUL 16; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3098; Last year = 3072 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 13 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 211 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 17 - JUL 23 This Week : JUL 24 - JUL 30 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 105 77 57 195 ---- Normal 104 76 59 192 Recorded 109 81 55 211 0.00 2015 106 77 53 203 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.49" 2.49" 2.49" 2.29" 1.93" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/17 7/18 7/19 7/20 7/21 7/22 7/23 Stress L1 L1 L2 L1 L1 L2 L2 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Monsoon flow will develop across the region this week, resulting in increased humidity & a chance for afternoon & evening thunderstorms in central & eastern production areas. The best chances for precipitation are early & late in the week as some drying is expected mid-week, particularly in central & western production areas. Temperatures will continue to run above normal & when combined with the increased humidity will produce heat stress in central & western AZ. Heat stress causes shedding of young bolls (<5 days old) which lowers overall fruit retention. For details go to http://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm#HEATSTRESS HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 31, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 3/15******************************************************* 2765 +8 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 *************************************************** 2562 +6 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/15*********************************************** 2364 +5 days | | | | | v | | | | 5/1 ******************************************* 2143 +5 days | | | | | v | | | | 5/15************************************** 1907 +5 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 30 v = Heat Units on JUL 23; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3309; Last year = 3275 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 14 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 211 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 24 - JUL 30 This Week : JUL 31 - AUG 6 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 104 76 59 192 ---- Normal 105 76 56 192 Recorded 110 81 59 211 0.00 2015 108 77 55 201 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.99" 2.99" 2.99" 2.99" 2.71" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 Stress L2 L2 L2 L2 L2 L2 L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -High moisture levels in combination with a favorable atmospheric flow regime will produce a wet start to the week. Expect very humid conditions with a good chance for rainfall each day through Wednesday. Heavy rain is possible with this weather pattern. Drier air is expected to reenter the region late in the week, reducing the chances for precipitation, particularly in western AZ. Humidity levels will remain sufficient for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms in central & eastern AZ late this week. Temperatures will drop to below normal levels through mid-week, then return to normal as the drier conditions return. -Colorado River flow for April-July was ~6.6 MAF--slightly above median flow. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 7, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 3/15*********************************************************** 2967 +8 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 ******************************************************* 2764 +7 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/15*************************************************** 2566 +5 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/1 *********************************************** 2345 +5 days | | | | | v | | | | 5/15****************************************** 2109 +5 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 6 v = Heat Units on JUL 30; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3511; Last year = 3476 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 15 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 203 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 31 - AUG 6 This Week : AUG 7 - AUG 13 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 105 76 56 192 ---- Normal 105 75 56 189 Recorded 103 78 67 203 0.64 2015 109 79 57 208 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.37" 2.37" 2.37" 2.37" 2.37" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/31 8/1 8/2 8/3 8/4 8/5 8/6 Stress L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Moisture from Tropical Storm Javier is expected to produce very wet conditions this week. The week will begin with warm & relatively dry conditions Monday. Tropical moisture will enter AZ Tuesday & remain in place through Thursday. Cooler temperatures will accompany the moisture as will greatly elevated chances for precipitation. Current forecasts call for precipitation amounts ranging from 1.0-2.0" in the desert areas of central & southeast AZ with much higher amounts in the mountains. Warmer & drier conditions are expected late in the week as the moisture departs to the east. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 14, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 3/15*************************************************************** 3173 +9 days | | | | | | | v | | 4/1 *********************************************************** 2970 +7 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/15******************************************************* 2772 +6 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/1 *************************************************** 2551 +6 days | | | | | |v | | | 5/15********************************************** 2315 +6 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 13 v = Heat Units on AUG 6; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3717; Last year = 3684 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 15 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 205 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 7 - AUG 13 This Week : AUG 14 - AUG 20 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 105 75 56 189 ---- Normal 104 75 58 189 Recorded 105 79 61 205 0.00 2015 108 79 60 204 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.27" 2.43" 2.43" 2.43" 2.43" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/7 8/8 8/9 8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 Stress L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -High pressure developed over the region this past weekend, putting an end to the humid, tropical conditions that impacted central & eastern AZ last week. High pressure will remain in place through Wednesday, producing clear skies, lower humidity & above normal temperatures. Monsoon flow will return late in the week, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures & a chance for afternoon & evening thunderstorms each day. -Heat stress information is available from AZMET website at the following URLs: (http://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/data/00stress1.txt) for statewide report & (http://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm#HEATSTRESS) the real time monitors. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 21, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 3/15******************************************************************* 3372 +9 days | | | | | | | v | | 4/1 *************************************************************** 3169 +8 days | | | | | | | v | | 4/15*********************************************************** 2971 +6 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/1 ******************************************************* 2750 +6 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/15************************************************** 2514 +6 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 20 v = Heat Units on AUG 13; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3916; Last year = 3888 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 16 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 200 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 14 - AUG 20 This Week : AUG 21 - AUG 27 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 104 75 58 189 ---- Normal 104 74 58 185 Recorded 106 77 57 200 0.38 2015 106 77 62 203 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.05" 2.34" 2.5" 2.5" 2.5" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 Stress L1 L1 L1 L2 L1 ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Monsoon moisture will remain in place Monday, providing a chance for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Drier air will enter AZ Tuesday & remain in place until late in the week, resulting in near normal temperatures & greatly reduced chances for precipitation. Longer term forecast models indicate a return to monsoon moisture by late in the week. -Heat stress diminished late last week as cooler temperatures entered the region. In most years, cooler temperatures & lengthening nights combine to end the heat stress season by early September. For more information see AZMET website at: http://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 28, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |v 3560 | 3/15********************************************************************* +7 days | | | | | | | v | | 4/1 ****************************************************************** 3357 +6 days | | | | | | | v | | 4/15************************************************************** 3159 +4 days | | | | | | |v | | 5/1 ********************************************************** 2938 +4 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/15***************************************************** 2702 +4 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 27 v = Heat Units on AUG 20; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 4104; Last year = 4091 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 15 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 188 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 21 - AUG 27 This Week : AUG 28 - SEP 3 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 104 74 58 185 ---- Normal 103 73 57 182 Recorded 100 73 0 188 0.13 2015 102 73 60 190 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.52" 1.75" 1.97" 2.03" 2.03" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 8/27 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Following a hot & dry Monday, moisture will return to central & eastern AZ Tuesday, resulting in increasing chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms mid-week. Slightly cooler temperatures will accompany the moisture. Drier air with elevated daytime temperatures will return this weekend. -The long range forecast for September exhibits a moderate warm bias & weak wet bias. The forecast for Oct-Dec reveals a strong warm bias & weak dry bias. -This will be the final advisory for the 2016 growing season. Have a safe & profitable harvest season! HARQUAHALA MAR 4, 2017 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ************* | **** 264 **** | ************* | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 4 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - FEB 25 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 1 day behind normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : FEB 26 - MAR 4 This Week : MAR 4 - MAR 11 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 72 39 28 40 ---- Normal 76 41 30 54 Recorded 70 40 40 33 0.57 2016 81 45 29 69 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 53.1 FEB 28 ; Min = 45.7 MAR 1 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -High pressure will result in clear & dry weather this week with very warm temp- eratures. After a cool start to the week on Monday, temperatures will increase to 10-15 degrees above normal by mid-week & remain in place for the rest of the week. Some slight moderation in temperature is expected next weekend. Long-term forecasts suggest warm & dry conditions will prevail for the next 10-14 days. -Soils typically warm to acceptable levels for germination when daytime high temperatures exceed 80F & minimum temperatures remain 48F & above. -The March 1st April-July flow forecast for the Colorado River of 10.4 MAF (145% of normal) has lessened the probability of a water shortage in 2018. HARQUAHALA MAR 18, 2017 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ********************** | ********* 439 ******** | ********************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 18 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 11 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 12 - MAR 18 This Week : MAR 18 - MAR 25 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 79 43 30 65 ---- Normal 80 44 29 70 Recorded 92 50 41 110 0.00 2016 86 46 26 89 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 64.2 MAR 17 ; Min = 60.3 MAR 11 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -The unusual March heat wave will end with the passage of a strong storm system mid-week. Some precipitation is expected Wednesday as the system passes over AZ. Much cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday through Saturday with highs in low desert production areas remaining in the 70s. Longer-term forecasts suggest the storm track will move closer to AZ over the next 7-10 days, resulting in more unsettled weather & cooler temperatures. -Soils have warmed considerably in recent weeks & are approaching acceptable levels for planting in many areas. Growers considering planting early should closely monitor weather forecasts (see above). A good cotton planting forecast calls for clear skies with highs above 80F & lows above 47F. HARQUAHALA MAR 25, 2017 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ************************** | *********** 528 ********** | ************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 25 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 18 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 7 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 19 - MAR 25 This Week : MAR 25 - APR 1 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 80 44 29 70 ---- Normal 80 45 29 71 Recorded 85 50 39 91 0.15 2016 79 45 26 67 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 67.8 MAR 22 ; Min = 56.3 MAR 24 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -An active storm track positioned near the 4-Corners will result in a week of unsettled weather. Expect warm & windy conditions Monday followed by cooler conditions Tuesday along with a slight chance for showers. Warmer conditions will return mid-week only to be replaced by cooler conditions this weekend. -March has been dry in the Colorado River basin, reducing spring & summer flow forecasts by ~10%. Considerable precipitation is forecast in the basin this week & could boost forecasts back to early March levels (9.9 MAF or 138% of normal). -A good cotton planting forecast calls for clear skies with highs above 80F & lows above 47F. HARQUAHALA APR 2, 2017 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ****************************** | ************* 603 ************ | ****************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 1 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 25 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 7 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 26 - APR 1 This Week : APR 2 - APR 8 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 80 44 29 70 ---- Normal 80 45 29 71 Recorded 80 48 31 74 0.00 2016 79 45 26 67 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 62.6 MAR 31 ; Min = 58.1 APR 1 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -An active storm track located north of AZ will make for variable temperatures this week. Breezy & mild conditions Monday will be followed by windy & cooler conditions Tueday. High pressure will rebuild over AZ mid-week resulting in very warm conditions only to be followed by another trough of low pressure that will bring breezy & cooler conditions this weekend. Significant precipitation is not expected this week; temperatures should average slightly above normal. -March precipitation was below normal in the Colorado River basin, reducing spring/summer flow forecasts by ~10%. The decision regarding lake equalization (extra water release from Powell to Mead) is expected sometime later this month. HARQUAHALA APR 9, 2017 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | *********************************** | **************** 694 ************** | *********************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 8 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 1 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 8 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 2 - APR 8 This Week : APR 9 - APR 15 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 80 45 29 71 ---- Normal 80 46 30 73 Recorded 85 48 28 91 0.00 2016 90 54 29 113 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 66 APR 6 ; Min = 58.3 APR 1 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -High pressure will dominate AZ weather this week, resulting in sunny & warm conditions & very low humidity. Expect mild evenings with daytime temperatures running 5-10 degrees above normal. Some breezy conditions may develop mid-week with the movement of storm systems across the Great Basin. Long range forecasts suggest another storm system could impact AZ this weekend or early next week. -Heat unit (HU) accumululation is running above normal & planting windows are open at most locations. Growers are encouraged to complete their plantings of full season varieties before HU accumulation exceeds 700. The forecasted temp- eratures this week should lead to acceptable soil temperatures for planting. -April projections for the Colorado River should be released by BOR this week. HARQUAHALA APR 16, 2017 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | *************************************** | ****************** 785 **************** | *************************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 15 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 8 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 8 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 9 - APR 15 This Week : APR 16 - APR 22 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 80 46 30 73 ---- Normal 82 46 29 80 Recorded 87 46 28 92 0.00 2016 81 52 47 85 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 66.4 APR 12 ; Min = 58.8 APR 9 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -High pressure will continue to dominate AZ weather this week, producing sunny & very warm conditions along with very low humidity. Daytime temperatures will ex- ceed 90F in most production areas & may reach 100F in the low deserts. Windy con- ditions are expected late this week as a storm system moves across the Great Basin. -Heat unit (HU) accumulation is running above normal & planting windows are open at all locations. Growers are encouraged to plant full season varieties as soon as possible, preferably before HU accumulation exceeds the 700-800 range. -Early cotton in Yuma Co. should be at or beyond pinhead square which typically occurs at ~700 HUs after planting. HARQUAHALA APR 23, 2017 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ********************************************* | ******************** 900 ******************** | ********************************************* | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 22 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 15 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 16 - APR 22 This Week : APR 23 - APR 29 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 82 46 29 80 ---- Normal 86 48 29 88 Recorded 92 52 31 115 0.00 2016 91 52 28 115 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 72.1 APR 18 ; Min = 66.2 APR 15 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -High pressure will weaken early this week as a strong trough of low pressure develops over the West. Expect windy weather with gradual cooling through mid- week followed by more windy weather & much cooler temperatures by the weekend. Precipitation associated with this storm system is expected to remain north of most cotton production areas--the exception may be southeast AZ. -The warm, dry March weather reduced projected spring/summer flow in the Upper Colorado River, eliminating the option for much higher water releases to Lake Mead. That said, BOR is expected to release 9.0 MAF to Mead which should keep Mead above 1075'& avoid a shortage declaration for Water Year 2018. HARQUAHALA APR 30, 2017 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | *************************************************** | *********************** 1012 ********************** | *************************************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 29 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 22 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 23 - APR 29 This Week : APR 30 - MAY 6 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 86 48 29 88 ---- Normal 88 51 31 101 Recorded 87 55 31 111 0.00 2016 81 52 33 83 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 72.7 APR 27 ; Min = 66.7 APR 28 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -High pressure will redevelop over AZ this week, resulting in warm weather with clear skies & light winds. Temperatures are expected to reach the 100F level by mid-week at elevations below 2000'. Another strong storm system is projected to move into CA this weekend, bringing another round of windy conditions with much cooler temperatures. Current forecasts indicate this storm may stall in the area producing a more prolonged impact. Precipitation is also possible in/near cotton production areas as early as Sunday/Monday. The current 8-14 day forecast shows a cool, wet bias for AZ (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/). -The Bureau of Reclamation is expected to release 9.0 MAF to Mead which should keep Mead above 1075'& avoid a shortage declaration for Water Year 2018. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 7, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | | 3/15*************** 752 +9 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 *********** 540 +6 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15******* 356 +4 days | | | | | | | | | 5/1 ** 101 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 6 v = Heat Units on APR 29; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1141; Last year = 1156 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 10 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 128 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 30 - MAY 6 This Week : MAY 7 - MAY 13 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 88 51 31 101 ---- Normal 90 52 31 108 Recorded 96 55 36 128 0.00 2016 90 52 41 105 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 Water Use (last week): .46" .43" .43" .43" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -A strong storm system will slowly migrate across the Southwest early this week, resulting in breezy & cool conditions with a chance for showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday. High pressure will redevelop over AZ late in the week, result- ing in a return to above normal temperatures by the weekend. Long-term forecasts project the development of another strong storm by the middle of next week. The current 8-14 day forecast (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/) exhibits a strong bias for below normal temperatures in AZ. -Crop development is running above normal. Important early development milestones include pinhead square, susceptible square and first flower which occur at ~700, 900 and 1200 HUs after planting, respectively. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 14, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | |v | | | | | | | 3/15***************** 839 +6 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ************* 627 +4 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15********* 443 +2 days |v | | | | | | | | 5/1 **** 188 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 13 v = Heat Units on MAY 6; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1228; Last year = 1261 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 7 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 86 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 7 - MAY 13 This Week : MAY 14 - MAY 20 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 90 52 31 108 ---- Normal 92 54 34 118 Recorded 82 53 45 86 0.14 2016 95 55 45 126 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 Water Use (last week): .46" .33" .33" .33" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -A series of storm systems will pass north of AZ this week, resulting in breezy conditions & below normal temperatures. Daytime temperatures will remain below 90F for much of the week with the coolest temperatures expected Tuesday. These storm systems lack moisture & precipitation chances are low this week, peaking at 10% on Thursday. Temperatures are expected to return to normal by the weekend. -Colorado River flow into Lake Powell is running 10% above normal for Water Year 2017. Flow projections for April-July snow melt season are ~23% above normal. -Crop development is running above normal. Important early development milestones include pinhead square, susceptible square & first flower which occur at ~700, 900 &1200 HUs after planting, respectively (see graph above for local conditions). HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 21, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | v| | | | | | | 3/15******************* 937 +4 days | v| | | | | | | | 4/1 ************** 725 +2 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15*********** 541 0 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ****** 286 -2 days | | | | | | | | | 5/15* 71 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 20 v = Heat Units on MAY 13; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1326; Last year = 1387 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 98 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 14 - MAY 20 This Week : MAY 21 - MAY 27 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 92 54 34 118 ---- Normal 95 57 37 133 Recorded 83 54 37 98 0.00 2016 90 59 49 130 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .7" .42" .42" .42" .42" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Strong high pressure will develop over AZ early this week, resulting in hot days &mild evenings through mid-week. Daytime temperatures will exceed 100F in most low desert production areas. A trough of low pressure will develop over the West beginning Thursday, producing breezy conditions & slightly cooler temperatures late in the week. No precipitation is expected with the passage of this trough. -The first post-plant irrigation typically occurs between 800 & 1000 HUs after planting. Coarse textured soils are often irrigated at the low end of this range while the upper end of the HU range may be appropriate for medium/finer soils. -Flow into Lake Powell for Water Year 2017 is running 14% above normal. Lake levels have increased an average of 6"/day for the past two weeks. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 28, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | |v | | | | | | 3/15********************** 1082 +5 days | |v | | | | | | | 4/1 ***************** 870 +3 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15************** 686 +1 day | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ********* 431 -1 day | | | | | | | | | 5/15**** 216 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 27 v = Heat Units on MAY 20; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1471; Last year = 1517 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 144 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 21 - MAY 27 This Week : MAY 28 - JUN 3 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 95 57 37 133 ---- Normal 93 56 38 125 Recorded 98 60 39 144 0.00 2016 90 54 41 109 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .97" .66" .46" .46" .46" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -A weak low pressure system over Baja will result in higher humidity levels & warm temperatures early this week. Precipitation with this system will be limited to the high elevation areas of eastern AZ. Slightly cooler temperatures &lower humidity will result with the passage of this system mid-week. Another warming trend is expected by the weekend. -The first post-plant irrigation typically occurs between 800 & 1000 HUs after planting (see graph above). Coarse textured soils are often irrigated at the low end of this range while the upper end of the HU range may be appropriate for medium/finer soils. -Flow into Lake Powell for Water Year 2017 continues to run 14% above normal. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 4, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | 3/15************************* 1234 +6 days | | v| | | | | | | 4/1 ******************** 1022 +3 days | v | | | | | | | 4/15***************** 838 +2 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ************ 583 0 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/15******* 368 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 3 v = Heat Units on MAY 27; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1623; Last year = 1777 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 7 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 152 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 28 - JUN 3 This Week : JUN 4 - JUN 10 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 99 59 37 139 ---- Normal 98 60 39 143 Recorded 99 61 43 152 0.00 2016 104 66 51 173 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.05" .77" .53" .4" .4" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -High pressure will strengthen over AZ early this week, resulting in the hottest temperatures of the season. This high pressure system will shift to the east later in the week, allowing for a few degrees of cooling. Humidity levels will remain low in central & western AZ, but will remain above normal along the New Mexico border where a few high elevation thunderstorms are possible. Expect temperatures to average about 5 degrees above normal this week. -Growers are encouraged to closely monitor soil moisture & avoid water stress. Water stress can result in square loss & push more of the primary bloom period into the more stressful monsoon season that typically develops by mid-July. -The water level in Lake Powell will exceed the 2016 peak level early this week. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 11, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | |v | | | | | 3/15**************************** 1409 +7 days | | | v | | | | | | 4/1 ************************ 1197 +5 days | | v| | | | | | | 4/15******************** 1013 +3 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 *************** 758 +1 day | v | | | | | | | | 5/15*********** 543 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 10 v = Heat Units on JUN 3; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1798; Last year = 1950 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 8 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 176 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 4 - JUN 10 This Week : JUN 11 - JUN 17 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 98 60 39 143 ---- Normal 102 62 40 152 Recorded 101 68 44 176 0.00 2016 99 61 50 151 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.5" 1.17" .89" .49" .48" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/4 6/5 6/6 6/7 6/8 6/9 6/10 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Breezy & cooler weather Monday will give way to strengthening high pressure by mid-week, resulting in very hot & dry conditions by the weekend. Temperatures this coming weekend should exceed 100F in all production areas with readings above 110F likely in the low deserts. -Growers are encouraged to closely monitor soil moisture & avoid water stress as evaporative demand will run above normal this week. Water stress can result in square loss & push more of the primary bloom period into the monsoon season. -Runoff into Lake Powell remains above normal & the lake is approaching 60% of capacity (3626')--its highest the highest level since August 2012. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 18, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | 3/15******************************* 1552 +6 days | | | v | | | | | 4/1 *************************** 1340 +4 days | | | v | | | | | | 4/15*********************** 1156 +3 days | |v | | | | | | | 5/1 ****************** 901 +1 day | v | | | | | | | | 5/15************** 686 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 17 v = Heat Units on JUN 10; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1941; Last year = 2101 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 7 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 143 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 11 - JUN 17 This Week : JUN 18 - JUN 24 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 102 62 40 152 ---- Normal 104 65 42 165 Recorded 100 58 36 143 0.00 2016 108 75 48 197 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.61" 1.3" 1.04" .68" .44" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15 6/16 6/17 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Intense high pressure will develop over AZ early this week, resulting in very hot & dry conditions. Expect record high temperatures Monday through Wednesday which translates to high temperatures above 115F in low elevation production areas. A slight amount of moisture is expected to leak into the southeast AZ this week, resulting in afternoon, mostly dry thunderstorms that could generate outflows in parts of central AZ that could produce localized high winds & dust. Slightly cooler & more humid conditions are expected by the weekend. -Monitor soil & plant water status closely. Water stress produces higher foliage temperatures which given the current forecast could lead to tissue damage. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 25, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 3/15*********************************** 1747 +7 days | | | | v | | | | | 4/1 ******************************* 1535 +5 days | | | v| | | | | | 4/15*************************** 1351 +4 days | | v | | | | | | 5/1 ********************** 1096 +2 days | v | | | | | | | 5/15****************** 881 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 24 v = Heat Units on JUN 17; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2136; Last year = 2298 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 8 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 194 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 18 - JUN 24 This Week : JUN 25 - JUL 1 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 104 65 42 165 ---- Normal 107 68 43 173 Recorded 114 73 49 194 0.00 2016 104 77 57 202 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.12" 1.78" 1.48" 1.06" .71" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 6/23 6/24 Stress ns L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -The high pressure system responsible for last week's record heat will weaken & move south of the area by mid-week. This pattern shift will result in moderating temperatures with very low humidity. Precipitation will be limited to some high elevation thunderstorms in southeastern AZ on Monday & Tuesday. -Monitor soil & plant water status closely. Evaporative demand has been running above normal for several weeks. Shorter irrigation intervals may be warranted. -The water level in Lake Powell continues to rise & now rests at 3634', or ~63% of capacity. At present the lake is 15' higher than last year which equates to ~1.6 MAF of additional water storage. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 2, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 3/15*************************************** 1939 +7 days | | | | v | | | | 4/1 *********************************** 1727 +6 days | | | | v | | | | | 4/15******************************* 1543 +4 days | | | v | | | | | | 5/1 ************************** 1288 +3 days | | v | | | | | | 5/15********************* 1073 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 1 v = Heat Units on JUN 24; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2328; Last year = 2500 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 8 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 193 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 25 - JUL 1 This Week : JUL 2 - JUL 8 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 107 68 43 173 ---- Normal 106 72 51 183 Recorded 108 74 46 193 0.00 2016 106 75 57 195 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.51" 2.15" 1.85" 1.42" 1.06" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/25 6/26 6/27 6/28 6/29 6/30 7/1 Stress L1 L1 ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Expect hot temperatures with increasing humidity. Moisture began entering the region over the weekend & is expected to remain in place much of the week. Temp- eratures are expected to climb back to the 110F level in central & western AZ late this week, setting up the potential for additional heat stress. Afternoon & evening thunderstorms are possible each day in southeast AZ, with expansion into central AZ later in the week. -Heat stress conditions developed early this year due to the record temperatures in late June. Cooler & drier weather last week led to less stressful conditions. Heat stress causes young 1-5-day old bolls to abort, lowering fruit retention. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 9, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 3/15******************************************* 2136 +8 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/1 ************************************** 1924 +6 days | | | | v | | | | 4/15*********************************** 1740 +5 days | | | | v | | | | | 5/1 ****************************** 1485 +3 days | | | v | | | | | | 5/15************************* 1270 +4 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 8 v = Heat Units on JUL 1; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2525; Last year = 2695 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 197 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 2 - JUL 8 This Week : JUL 9 - JUL 15 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 106 72 51 183 ---- Normal 106 75 55 190 Recorded 111 75 50 197 0.00 2016 109 75 44 196 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.74" 2.51" 2.2" 1.77" 1.4" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/2 7/3 7/4 7/5 7/6 7/7 7/8 Stress ns L1 ns L1 L1 L2 L2 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Monsoon circulation has now developed across the state. Expect cooler & more humid conditions this week with a chance for afternoon & evening thunderstorms each day. The high pressure system responsible for directing the monsoon flow will fluctuate in position some, resulting in up & down days for storm activity. Longer term forecast models suggest enhanced precipitation this coming weekend. -Last week's high temperatures & moderate humidity produced Level 2 heat stress in some low elevation production areas. Level 2 stress often results in moderate to heavy fruit shed (young bolls). Fruit retention typically recovers with less stressful conditions. For more details: www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 16, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 3/15*********************************************** 2342 +8 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/1 ******************************************* 2130 +6 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/15*************************************** 1946 +5 days | | | | v| | | | | 5/1 ********************************** 1691 +4 days | | | |v | | | | | 5/15****************************** 1476 +4 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 15 v = Heat Units on JUL 8; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2731; Last year = 2891 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 206 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 9 - JUL 15 This Week : JUL 16 - JUL 22 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 106 75 55 190 ---- Normal 106 77 56 195 Recorded 108 79 60 206 0.11 2016 109 81 55 209 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.9" 2.9" 2.7" 2.24" 1.85" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/9 7/10 7/11 7/12 7/13 7/14 7/15 Stress L2 L2 L1 L2 L2 L2 L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Monsoon circulation will remain in place this week, resulting in cooler temp- eratures, high humidity & the chance for afternoon & evening storms each day. Heavy precipitation is possible Monday & Tuesday with the passage of an east- erly wave. Temperatures should average slightly below normal this week. -High humidity in combination with high temperatures produces heat stress which reduces fruit retention due to the loss of young bolls. Level 2 heat stress typically produces a more consistent & damaging level of fruit loss & prolonged periods of L2 stress can damage developing squares resulting in extended periods of low fruit retention. For more details: www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 23, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 3/15*************************************************** 2547 +8 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 *********************************************** 2335 +7 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/15******************************************* 2151 +6 days | | | | | v | | | | 5/1 ************************************** 1896 +4 days | | | | v | | | | | 5/15********************************** 1681 +5 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 22 v = Heat Units on JUL 15; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2936; Last year = 3100 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 207 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 16 - JUL 22 This Week : JUL 23 - JUL 29 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 106 77 56 195 ---- Normal 104 76 59 193 Recorded 104 79 64 207 0.33 2016 109 81 57 211 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.46" 2.46" 2.46" 2.22" 1.89" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/16 7/17 7/18 7/19 7/20 7/21 7/22 Stress L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -A humid & potentially wet Monday will be followed by a drying & warming trend through Thursday. Heavy rain is possible Monday in central & western production areas. A reduction in monsoon activity will begin Tuesday & continue into Thurs- day. Expect temperatures to return to normal by mid-week with lower humidity. Precipitation will be less widespread & mostly resident in high elevation areas. Amore favorable monsoon flow regime is expected to return this weekend. -Heat stress lessened in many areas last week due to cooling temperatures. Some areas continued to see L2 stress where night temperatures remained elevated. -Check out the new Cotton Weather webpage: www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 30, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 3/15******************************************************* 2745 +9 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 *************************************************** 2533 +7 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/15*********************************************** 2349 +6 days | | | | | v | | | | 5/1 ****************************************** 2094 +4 days | | | | | v | | | | 5/15************************************** 1879 +5 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 29 v = Heat Units on JUL 22; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3134; Last year = 3311 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 10 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 199 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 23 - JUL 29 This Week : JUL 30 - AUG 5 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 104 76 59 193 ---- Normal 105 76 57 192 Recorded 102 77 66 199 0.61 2016 104 77 66 203 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.13" 2.13" 2.13" 2.13" 1.9" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/23 7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 Stress L1 ns L1 L1 L1 L1 ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -A moist monsoon pattern is expected to remain in place much of the week, result- ing in near normal temperatures & a chance for afternoon & evening thunderstorms each day. Current forecasts suggest Tuesday through Thursday could be the best days for precipitation due to the passage of a tropical, easterly wave. -The recent cooler conditions have reduced heat stress in most areas. Exceptions to this general observation have occurred in areas where cloudiness and/or winds have kept night temperatures near/above 80F. -A wet bias remains in the forecast for the next 8-14 days for much of AZ. See new Cotton Weather Webpage for details: www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 6, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 3/15*********************************************************** 2948 +9 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 ******************************************************* 2736 +7 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/15*************************************************** 2552 +6 days | | | | | |v | | | 5/1 ********************************************** 2297 +5 days | | | | | v | | | | 5/15****************************************** 2082 +5 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 5 v = Heat Units on JUL 29; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3337; Last year = 3514 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 10 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 203 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 30 - AUG 5 This Week : AUG 6 - AUG 12 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 105 76 57 192 ---- Normal 105 75 56 188 Recorded 102 78 66 203 0.02 2016 106 79 63 205 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.96" 1.96" 1.96" 1.96" 1.96" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/30 7/31 8/1 8/2 8/3 8/4 8/5 Stress ns L2 L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Much drier air moved into AZ late last week, leading to clear skies with warm days & much lower night temperatures. Heat stress conditions diminished with the arrival of the drier air. Dry conditions will remain through mid-week, resulting in a warming trend that will bring low desert temperatures back above 110F. A return to more favorable monsoon flow along with potential impacts from a dying Atlantic tropical storm increase the chances for precipitation late this week. -The "spring" snow melt season in the Colorado Basin concluded on 31 July. Flow into Lake Powell totaled 8.18 MAF or ~14% above the 30-year average of 7.16 MAF. -Check out new Cotton Weather Webpage : www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 13, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 3/15*************************************************************** 3146 +9 days | | | | | | | v | | 4/1 *********************************************************** 2934 +8 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/15******************************************************* 2750 +7 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/1 ************************************************** 2495 +5 days | | | | | |v | | | 5/15********************************************** 2280 +6 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 12 v = Heat Units on AUG 5; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3535; Last year = 3719 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 10 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 197 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 6 - AUG 12 This Week : AUG 13 - AUG 19 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 105 75 56 188 ---- Normal 104 76 59 190 Recorded 105 76 56 197 0.01 2016 106 77 57 200 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.29" 2.42" 2.42" 2.42" 2.42" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/6 8/7 8/8 8/9 8/10 8/11 8/12 Stress L1 ns ns ns L1 L1 L2 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Another surge of very dry air will enter AZ Monday, shutting off the monsoon through Friday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in central & eastern AZ Monday during the transition to this drier air mass. Expect clear skies, low humidity & near normal temperatures Tuesday through Friday. Longer-term fore- casts call for a return to monsoon flow this weekend. -Boll maturity estimates can assist with decisions related to crop termination. The HU requirements from flowering to the hard green and open boll stages are 600 & 1000 HUs, respectively. Go to www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm for more details -- click on the button labeled Boll Maturity Estimates. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 20, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | 3326 | 3/15******************************************************************* +9 days | | | | | | | v | | 4/1 ************************************************************** 3114 +7 days | | | | | | | v | | 4/15*********************************************************** 2930 +6 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/1 ****************************************************** 2675 +5 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/15************************************************* 2460 +5 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 19 v = Heat Units on AUG 12; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3715; Last year = 3919 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 10 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 180 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 13 - AUG 19 This Week : AUG 20 - AUG 26 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 104 76 59 190 ---- Normal 104 74 58 186 Recorded 103 70 49 180 0.00 2016 100 72 60 185 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.08" 2.37" 2.46" 2.46" 2.46" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 Stress L1 ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Sunny & dry conditions with near normal temperatures will continue through Tues- day. A trough of low pressure will impact AZ mid-week, elevating humidity levels &increasing the chances for precipitation. Drier & hotter conditions return on Friday & this coming weekend, reducing the chances for precipitation. -Long range forecasts were updated last week. Forecasts for September exhibit a weak to moderate bias for above normal temperatures & no bias for precipitation. The 90-day forecast for September thru November exhibits a strong bias for above normal temperatures & no bias relative to precipitation. For more details go to www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm -- click on 30-Day or 90-Day Forecast buttons. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 27, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v 3521 | 3/15*********************************************************************+10 days | | | | | | | v | | 4/1 ****************************************************************** 3309 +8 days | | | | | | | v | | 4/15************************************************************** 3125 +7 days | | | | | | |v | | 5/1 ********************************************************* 2870 +5 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/15***************************************************** 2655 +6 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 26 v = Heat Units on AUG 19; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3910; Last year = 4104 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 11 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 194 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 20 - AUG 26 This Week : AUG 27 - SEP 2 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 104 74 58 186 ---- Normal 103 73 58 183 Recorded 106 74 54 194 0.00 2016 104 73 56 188 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.56" 1.82" 2.04" 2.12" 2.12" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 Stress ns ns ns L1 L1 ns L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -High pressure over the Great Basin will produce hot & generally dry conditions this week. Some moisture will remain in eastern AZ & may produce some precipita- tion mid-week. Temperatures will run 4-6 degrees above normal & may exceed 110F in western AZ. Long-term forecasts suggest a tropical storm in the Pacific may lead to a surge of moisture, cooler temperatures & greater chances for precip- itation this weekend. To monitor forecasts go to the new Cotton Weather Page & click on any of the forecast buttons (www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm). -This will be the final advisory for the 2017 production season. Have a safe & profitable harvest season! HARQUAHALA MAR 4, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ***************** | ****** 349 ****** | ***************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 3 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - FEB 24 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 11 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : FEB 25 - MAR 3 This Week : MAR 4 - MAR 10 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 69 39 31 32 ---- Normal 71 39 28 39 Recorded 69 30 23 26 0.03 2017 68 41 40 30 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 49.3 MAR 3 ; Min = 41 FEB 25 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will develop over AZ this week resulting in mostly clear weather with above normal temperatures. While no precipitation is expected during the work week, long range forecasts remain undecided regarding the weekend, with some models suggesting cooler conditions & a slight chance for rainsfall Sunday. Growers planning to plant this week should monitor updated weekend forecasts. --Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) should exceed 60F prior to planting. Soils approach 60F at 8am when minimum air temperatures (at sunrise) remain above 47F. To review local soil temperature data go to https://ag.arizona.edu/azmet. --Snow pack in the Colorado River Basin is running at 70% of median. The current forecast for spring flow into Lake Powell stands at 47% of normal (3.4 MAF). HARQUAHALA MAR 11, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ******************** | ******** 404 ******* | ******************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 10 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 3 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 10 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 4 - MAR 10 This Week : MAR 11 - MAR 17 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 71 39 28 39 ---- Normal 74 40 30 48 Recorded 76 43 17 55 0.01 2017 70 41 40 36 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 61 MAR 10 ; Min = 47.8 MAR 5 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will bring sunny, warm & dry weather through mid-week. A trough of low pressure will impact AZ late this week, resulting in windy conditions with higher humidity, cooler temperatures & a chance for rainfall beginning Friday. Growers considering planting this week are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as most production areas are expected to receive some rainfall this weekend. --Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) should exceed 60F prior to planting. Soils approach 60F at 8am when minimum air temperatures (at sunrise) remain above 47F. For local soil temperatures see https://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cot-soil.htm --Snow pack in the Colorado River Basin is running at 68% of median. The current forecast for spring flow into Lake Powell stands at 44% of normal (3.2 MAF). HARQUAHALA MAR 18, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | *********************** | ********** 467 ******** | *********************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 17 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 10 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 11 - MAR 17 This Week : MAR 18 - MAR 24 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 74 40 30 48 ---- Normal 79 43 30 65 Recorded 77 47 39 63 0.03 2017 82 43 36 73 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 61.7 MAR 13 ; Min = 53.1 MAR 17 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A cool & dry Monday will be followed by much warmer conditions through mid-week as high pressure builds over the region. Warm & dry weather will continue through mid-week with temperatures peaking on Thursday. A trough of low pressure will move across the Great Basin late this week, resulting in a slight chance for rain & a return to normal temperatures. Rain is more likely in northern production areas. --Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) should exceed 60F prior to planting. Hand- held digital thermometers are an inexpensive means of assessing soil temperature. See https://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cot-soil.htm to review soil temperatures from AZMET. Soil temperatures typically reach acceptable levels for planting when day- time air temperatures exceed 80F & minimum air temperatures exceed 47F. HARQUAHALA MAR 18, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | *********************** | ********** 467 ******** | *********************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 17 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 10 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 11 - MAR 17 This Week : MAR 18 - MAR 24 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 74 40 30 48 ---- Normal 79 43 30 65 Recorded 77 47 39 63 0.03 2017 82 43 36 73 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 61.7 MAR 13 ; Min = 53.1 MAR 17 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A cool & dry Monday will be followed by much warmer conditions through mid-week as high pressure builds over the region. Warm & dry weather will continue through mid-week with temperatures peaking on Thursday. A trough of low pressure will move across the Great Basin late this week, resulting in a slight chance for rain & a return to normal temperatures. Rain is more likely in northern production areas. --Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) should exceed 60F prior to planting. Hand- held digital thermometers are an inexpensive means of assessing soil temperature. See https://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cot-soil.htm to review soil temperatures from AZMET. Soil temperatures typically reach acceptable levels for planting when day- time air temperatures exceed 80F & minimum air temperatures exceed 47F. HARQUAHALA MAR 25, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | *************************** | ************ 539 ********** | *************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 24 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 17 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 18 - MAR 24 This Week : MAR 25 - MAR 31 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 79 43 30 65 ---- Normal 80 44 30 69 Recorded 79 46 24 72 0.00 2017 93 50 41 112 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 68 MAR 23 ; Min = 53.2 MAR 20 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A dry storm system will pass through the region early this week, resulting in windy conditions & cooler temperatures through Tuesday. Precipitation with this system will be limited to the mountains of northeast AZ. High pressure returns by mid-week, resulting in sunny skies & above normal temperatures. High temper- atures may exceed 90F in lower elevation production areas late in the week. --Growers planning to plant this week should monitor soil temperatures & updated forecasts. A good planting forecast calls for clear skies with maximum air temp- eratures above 80F and minimum air temperatures of 48F & above. --See https://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cot-soil.htm to review soil temperatures from local AZMET stations. HARQUAHALA APR 1, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ******************************* | ************** 615 ************ | ******************************* | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 31 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 24 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 25 - MAR 31 This Week : APR 1 - APR 7 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 80 44 30 69 ---- Normal 80 45 28 71 Recorded 82 46 22 76 0.00 2017 82 50 39 84 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 63.5 MAR 31 ; Min = 56.1 MAR 26 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A dry storm system will pass through the region early this week, resulting in windy conditions & cooler temperatures through Tuesday. Precipitation with this system will be limited to the mountains of northeast AZ. High pressure returns by mid-week, resulting in sunny skies & above normal temperatures. High temper- atures may exceed 90F in lower elevation production areas late in the week. --Growers planning to plant this week should monitor soil temperatures & updated forecasts. A good planting forecast calls for clear skies with maximum air temp- eratures above 80F and minimum air temperatures of 48F & above. --See https://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cot-soil.htm to review soil temperatures from local AZMET stations. HARQUAHALA APR 8, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ************************************* | **************** 736 **************** | ************************************* | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 7 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 31 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 13 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 1 - APR 7 This Week : APR 8 - APR 14 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 80 45 28 71 ---- Normal 79 46 30 71 Recorded 90 56 31 121 0.00 2017 81 48 31 75 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 72.3 APR 7 ; Min = 64.6 APR 2 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Sunny, hot & dry through mid-week with daytime temperatures approaching record levels. A strong storm system will pass north of AZ Thursday, resulting in windy & much cooler conditions Friday & Saturday. No precipitation is expected with this system. Warmer conditions will return by Sunday. --Warm spring weather has resulted in above normal HU accumulation. Growers are encouraged to complete plantings of full season varieties soon. Medium maturity varieties are recommended once HU accumulation exceeds 700-800. --Minimum soil temperatures should be 60F to ensure acceptable germination. Go to https://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cot-soil.htm to review local AZMET values. --April 1 Colorado River flow projection: 3.1 MAF into Lake Powell (<50% normal). HARQUAHALA APR 15, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ****************************************** | ******************* 844 ****************** | ****************************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 14 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 7 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 14 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 8 - APR 14 This Week : APR 15 - APR 21 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 79 46 30 71 ---- Normal 82 46 29 79 Recorded 88 54 21 108 0.00 2017 84 50 28 91 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 73.9 APR 8 ; Min = 63.5 APR 14 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A pair of storm systems will impact AZ this week. The first system will enter the region Monday & Tuesday, bringing high winds Monday followed by much cooler temperatures Tuesday. Warmer conditions return Wednesday only to be followed by another windy & dry storm system Thursday & Friday. High pressure returns next weekend, resulting in a return to warm & dry conditions with less wind. Neither of this week's storm systems offer much chance for precipitation. --Growers are encouraged to complete plantings of full season varieties soon. Medium maturity varieties are recommended once HU accumulation exceeds 700-800. --Pinhead square (PHS) represents an important early developmental stage. The first PHSs typically form at nodes 5 to 7 at ~700 HUs after planting. HARQUAHALA APR 22, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ********************************************** | ********************* 921 ******************** | ********************************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 21 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 14 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 12 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 15 - APR 21 This Week : APR 22 - APR 28 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 82 46 29 79 ---- Normal 85 47 28 86 Recorded 81 47 23 76 0.00 2017 88 46 28 95 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 68.2 APR 16 ; Min = 60.8 APR 20 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will dominate AZ weather this week, resulting in very warm temp- eratures, scattered high elevation clouds & low humidity. A weak disturbance may produce a few high elevation showers in far eastern AZ late in the week. --Medium maturity varieties are recommended once heat unit (HU) accumulation exceeds 700-800 (see Planting Date Advisory graph above). --Plant population should range from 25,000-50,000 plants/a. To assess, count the number of plants in 1/1000a & multiply by 1000. Row length = to 1/1000a: 40"row = 13'1", 38"row = 13'9", 36"row = 14'6", 30"row = 17'5". --Pinhead square (PHS) represents an important early developmental stage. The first PHSs typically form at nodes 5 to 7 at ~700 HUs after planting. HARQUAHALA APR 29, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ***************************************************** | *********************** 1051 ************************ | ***************************************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 28 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 21 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 13 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 22 - APR 28 This Week : APR 29 - MAY 5 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 85 47 28 86 ---- Normal 88 50 32 97 Recorded 95 56 35 130 0.00 2017 91 52 31 117 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 73.4 APR 26 ; Min = 66.6 APR 22 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A strong low pressure system will impact AZ during the first half of the week. Expect windy & much cooler conditions through Wednesday. Temperature will run 8- 10 degrees below normal by mid-week. Precipitation is possible with the passage of this system, particularly in northern & high elevation production areas. Hot & dry weather returns Friday as high pressure redevelops over the region. --Plant population should range from 25,000-50,000 plants/a. To assess, count the number of plants in 1/1000a & multiply by 1000. Row length = to 1/1000a: 40"row = 13'1", 38"row = 13'9", 36"row = 14'6", 30"row = 17'5". --Pinhead square (PHS) represents an important early developmental stage. The first PHSs typically form at nodes 5 to 7 at ~700 HUs after planting. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 6, 2018 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | | 3/15************** 687 +6 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ********** 508 +5 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15****** 285 +1 day | | | | | | | | | 5/1 * 55 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 5 v = Heat Units on APR 28; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1142; Last year = 1027 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 11 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 90 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 29 - MAY 5 This Week : MAY 6 - MAY 12 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 89 51 30 105 ---- Normal 91 53 34 114 Recorded 84 52 36 90 0.00 2017 93 55 36 123 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 Water Use (last week): .38" .38" .38" .38" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure over the Southwest will produce hot & dry conditions for much of the week. Expect near record high temperatures mid-week. Windy & cooler conditions are expected late this week as a storm system passes through the Great Basin. This storm system is not expected to generate precipitation in cotton production areas. --Forecasts for Colorado River spring flow into Lake Powell now stand at 3 MAF or 42% of the average flow, which is ~7.2 MAF. --Plant population should range from 25,000-50,000 plants/a. To assess, count the number of plants in 1/1000a & multiply by 1000. Row length = to 1/1000a: 40"row = 13'1", 38"row = 13'9", 36"row = 14'6", 30"row = 17'5".